CLEVELAND, Ohio – Daryl Morey needs James Harden to love him back.
Morey, the 76ers’ president of basketball operations, has bet on Harden at every opportunity during the former MVP’s career.
As Rockets general manager, Morey traded for Harden to be his star when Harden was a sixth man in Oklahoma City. He chose Harden over Dwight Howard, Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook, all of whom entered failed superstar pairings with Harden. And even after watching The Beard quit on Houston in 2020 and bail on the Brooklyn Nets – Harden’s hand-chosen destination -- 80 games into his tenure, Morey traded for Harden again in Philadelphia.
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This summer, Harden can reward Morey’s faith by re-signing with the 54-win Sixers, who fell one game short of the Eastern Conference Finals this postseason. But Harden can’t decide if he wants to. The Athletic’s Shams Charania reported this week that Harden is “torn” between staying in Philadelphia and returning to Houston, which hasn’t won more than 22 games since he left. And ESPN’s Ramona Shelbourne even said on local Los Angeles radio to “keep an eye on” the Suns as a Harden suitor.
Without Harden, the 76ers would be left shopping in a dry free agent market or peddling even dryer assets (they own just two of their next five first-round picks). So as the steady Cavs bet on continuity Harden’s decision marks another Eastern Conference domino to monitor this offseason.
Why Philly Needs Harden
Harden is no longer the scoring machine Morey coveted during their Houston days, but the Sixers guard is still an elite table-setter for whom Philadelphia doesn’t have a ready-made replacement.
Harden led the NBA in assists (10.7 per game) and posted the best assist-to-turnover ratio of his career (3.15) last season. No other teammate averaged more than 4.2 assists (Joel Embiid), and the only teammate to approach Harden’s assist-to-turnover number was Tyrese Maxey (2.6), who has never shouldered Harden-sized playmaking duties during his pro (or college) career.
Without Harden, Philadelphia would either need Maxey to make that leap or perform cap gymnastics to find a replacement. The 76ers are about $59.5 million over the cap, which means they couldn’t create enough room to add another high-level ball-handler by simply subtracting Harden’s cap hold.
Forward Tobias Harris, who has one year and about $39 million left on his contact, would also need to be moved. That transaction might cost Morey another draft pick. And perhaps the most prescient consideration: Philadelphia’s replacement would likely fall below Harden’s standard.
The top free agent point guards this summer include Kyrie Irving, who has proven himself unpredictable, Fred Van Vleet, who is solid but not a star (and turns 30 next season), and D’Angelo Russell, whom the Lakers benched during the Western Conference Finals.
Good Luck satisfying Joel Embiid with that crop.
A LOOMING GRUMP
Speaking of The Big Man, Embiid told reporters after Philadelphia’s second-round loss to the Celtics that he still believed he and Harden could win a championship.
“We’ve got an unfinished job,” Embiid said. “… I still believe we’ve got the chance to win. We’ve got what it takes to win. Obviously, I don’t know what’s going on. I know he has a player option. They can extend it. But that’s on (the front office). I’m gonna stay out of it, but I still believe that, me and him, we’ve got the chance to win.”
Embiid may be “staying out of it,” but the 76ers would be wise to consider his remarks, anyway. Their championship window is only open if Embiid remains a superstar, and a happy one.
ESPN’s Tim MacMahon said last week on The Hoop Collective podcast that the Knicks are monitoring Embiid’s situation in Philadelphia in hopes that the offseason goes “haywire” for the 76ers, prompting Embiid to request a trade. Nicknamed “The Process,” the 2023 MVP is as intertwined with his city as any NBA star, and he has three seasons left on his contract.
He’s also 29 and has a long injury history. He’s never appeared in the conference finals, and as he said during after the Boston series, “If I don’t finish first, it is a failure.”
That means the 76ers have failed seven straight times. And if they fail to retain Embiid’s pick-and-roll partner, scavengers like the Knicks will linger. Just because New York is looking doesn’t mean Embiid wants out. But the same logic applies to Embiid’s contract.
Just because he signed it, doesn’t mean he’ll complete it.
Cavs’ Perspective
The Sixers won more games last season (54) than they had since the 2000-01 season, and they still finished just three games ahead of Cleveland, which rested key players at regular season’s end.
How many wins was Harden worth? Because those three wins were the difference between playing the Knicks, who stomped Cleveland in the first round, and the Nets, whom Philadelphia stomped in the first round.
Yes, the Cavs needed to perform better in the postseason, but it would’ve helped to play a weaker opponent. The regular season can’t prepare you for the playoffs, but it can put you on an easier path. That’s a big reason why history has repeatedly proven that higher seeds make deeper playoff runs.
If Philadelphia retains Harden, the 76ers will remain a regular-season juggernaut. Without him, Cleveland could usurp them in the standings (and piss off Embiid in the process).
No franchise should plan a future around rival stars leaving, but Cleveland wouldn’t veto a Sixers implosion -- as long as The Process wanted to move West.
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